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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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