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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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