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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 April 20
SUSPENSION OF WRONGFUL TRADING IN LIGHT OF COVID 19 - WF&W
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
DIRECTORS’ PERSONAL LIABILITY FOR WRONGFUL TRADING – RELIEF DURING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
As the UK&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SCRUBBER INSTALLATION AND OPERATION - ABS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
At the beginning of this year, the IMO’s global sulfur cap on marine fuels entered into force and shipowners who ch ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With lockdown measures around the globe tightening during the last weeks of Q1, there is finally a feeling that most countries are slowly but stead ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubted ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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