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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
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Friday, 17 April 20
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Thursday, 16 April 20
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The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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