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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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