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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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