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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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