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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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