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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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