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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 September 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE DIVES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER DUE TO SUBDUED DEMAND & GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY
Subdued demand & global oversupply pushed down this month's HBA
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
WHY INDIA CAN'T MATCH THE GULF REGION'S RECORD-LOW SOLAR TARIFFS - IEEFA
5-10% annual decline in tariffs estimated for the next decade
A number of countries in the Gulf region have set record-low prices for solar in ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long ...
Monday, 31 August 20
DEFECTIVE PASSAGE PLANNING: UNSEAWORTHINESS OR A NAVIGATIONAL DECISION? THE CMA CGM LIBRA QUESTION SAILS ON TO THE UK SUPREME COURT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The UK Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal the recent decision in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG ( ...
Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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