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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
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