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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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