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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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