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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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