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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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