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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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