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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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