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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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