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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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