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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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