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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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