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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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