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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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