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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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