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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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