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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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