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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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