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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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