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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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