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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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