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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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