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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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