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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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