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Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to global decarbonisation or short-term supply-demand imbalances.
We have raised short- and medium-term copper prices due to strong demand, supported by energy transition trends such as electric vehicle production and renewables roll-out. Copper inventories are at very low levels (less than three weeks’ worth of consumption with exchange stocks at 20-year lows). We expect the copper market to stay largely balanced over the medium term, supporting prices. While demand is increasing, mining companies face challenges in obtaining environmental permits for new projects and local communities’ resistance, reducing risks of oversupply.
We have cut our 2022 iron ore price assumption and increased it in 2023-2024. We expect the iron ore market to be more balanced in 2022 following a large deficit in 2021. Inventories have risen and are likely to remain higher than in the past two years, which will support price moderation in 2022. However, cost inflation – including shipping rates and environmental compliance – will limit downside risks in the coming years.
The updated coking coal price assumptions for 2022 reflect our expectation that prices will moderate from current levels due to lower demand from China, driven by the government-induced decline in steel production and winter season curbs. However, supply is likely to remain disrupted, while there are some pockets of growing demand, including India, which support our higher-than-previously expected short-term assumption.
We have increased all aluminium price assumptions due to strong market fundamentals. Power disruptions in China have led to production capacity curtailments that, together with delayed ramp-ups and restarts, have led to significant deficits in 2021 that we expect to continue in 2022 with a tight market balance thereafter. Weaker demand from some end-markets, including that linked to chip shortages, has been more than offset by production cuts. Demand for aluminium in the medium and long term will be supported by its application in electrification and energy transition.
Our increased short and medium-term zinc price assumptions are driven by global demand growth at nearly pre-pandemic rates, despite some deceleration in China. The global refined zinc market is likely to swing into shortages in 2022 and 2023, supporting prices. However, supply is price-elastic and highly fragmented, leading to increased production and curbing prices in the longer term.
Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term.
Our increased 2022 Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg thermal coal price assumptions reflect our expectation that the market supply will remain tight after temporary production-incentivising measures are withdrawn in China. We still expect low single-digit growth in domestic consumption of thermal coal in 2022, despite the slowing of the economy, because new renewable capacity cannot cover all power demand. We expect prices to subsequently align with the earlier assumptions. We have similarly revised the Australia Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg benchmark.
The increase in the 2022 nickel price assumptions is driven by residual effects of low stocks and higher prices in 2021, while we kept other medium- and long-term assumptions unchanged due to risks of increased supply from Indonesia, that could potentially lead to small market surpluses.
Our updated assumptions for 2021 largely reflect year-to-date average prices.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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