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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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