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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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