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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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