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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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