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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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