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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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