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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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