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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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