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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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