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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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