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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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