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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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