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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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