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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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