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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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