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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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