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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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